Djurgardens IF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Djurgardens IF's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, IFK Norrkoping in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Djurgardens IF 1W, IFK Norrkoping 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.67 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.272 / defence 1.021 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.838 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.246. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Djurgardens IF games / 32 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 24%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 4.17. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.67 / IFK Norrkoping 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.272 / def 1.021 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.838 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 51% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.84x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.11
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.07
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.07 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 31W 12D 17L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 12W 3D 15L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.90 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
0
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 7, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 57%, IFK Norrkoping 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 67% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Djurgardens IF's games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.67 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 24%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.75 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.