Degerfors IF 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 0.80 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.838 / defence 1.207 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.919 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.138. Data: 47 Degerfors IF games / 47 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Degerfors IF 1.45 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.838 / def 1.207 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.919 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 41% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.84x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.69
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.26 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 6D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (14W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 0.96 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 9W 3D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 6D 28L in their last 47 games (0.96 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.30 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
7
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Degerfors IF and 65% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 30% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Degerfors IF's games and 65% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Degerfors IF's matches and 65% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.96 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.