Degerfors IF 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 0D 2L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.40 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 33% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 83%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 42% | Varbergs BoIS FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.52 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.944 / defence 1.332 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.047 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.121. Data: 12 Degerfors IF games / 42 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 36% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 20% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 36% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Degerfors IF 1.52 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.944 / def 1.332 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.047 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 36% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.94x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.79
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.08
1.56
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.56 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 2D 6L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.17 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.80 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
7
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 20%, Varbergs BoIS FC 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Degerfors IF and 80% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 20% of Degerfors IF's games and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Degerfors IF's matches and 80% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.52 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 36% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 42%, Varbergs BoIS FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.17 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.