Degerfors IF 3-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 0D 1L at Stora Valla — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stora Valla. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Degerfors IF's 1.38 PPG return is 0.58 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Degerfors IF 25% | Ostersunds FK 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Degerfors IF 25% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.25 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.961 / defence 0.900 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.791 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.102. Data: 8 Degerfors IF games / 38 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Ostersunds FK 4.76. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 0% | Ostersunds FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Degerfors IF 1.25 / Ostersunds FK 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.961 / def 0.900 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.791 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Ostersunds FK xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Degerfors IF 3 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 46% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.79x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
46%
2.20
33%
3.01
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.04
0.78
Ostersunds FK xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
16.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.78 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.00 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ostersunds FK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Degerfors IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (Ostersunds FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Degerfors IF and 0% for Ostersunds FK.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Ostersunds FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 0% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Ostersunds FK 3-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.25 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.78 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 21%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 25%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.38 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.