Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Mjallby AIF.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.

Mjallby AIF have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the last 8 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.

It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and Mjallby AIF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Mjallby AIF 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.99 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.707 / defence 0.999 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.032 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.316. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Degerfors IF games / 36 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 30% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.

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