Degerfors IF 0-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Malmo FF travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stora Valla — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 2 for Malmo FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Malmo FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | Malmo FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and Malmo FF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.838 / defence 1.447 | Malmo FF attack 0.724 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.074. Data: 39 Degerfors IF games / 40 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 36%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Malmo FF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 70% | Malmo FF 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 1.09 / Malmo FF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.838 / def 1.447 | Malmo FF attack 0.724 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Malmo FF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 35% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.45
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.22
1.13
Malmo FF xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.13 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 10W 4D 16L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 5L across 30 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 7W 1D 7L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 9W 3D 3L across 15 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.93 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 17W 8D 5L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.47 PPG; Malmo FF away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Malmo FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Malmo FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 53% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 47%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 53% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 53% of Malmo FF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 0-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and Malmo FF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Malmo FF outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.45 against Malmo FF attack 0.72 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 36%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, Malmo FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.