Degerfors IF 0-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as Degerfors IF welcome IFK Varnamo to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stora Valla — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 0.80 PPG versus IFK Varnamo's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 62% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | IFK Varnamo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.35 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.957 / defence 1.105 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.868 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.143. Data: 43 Degerfors IF games / 42 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 29%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Varnamo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | IFK Varnamo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Degerfors IF 1.35 / IFK Varnamo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.957 / def 1.105 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.868 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
IFK Varnamo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Degerfors IF 0 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 41% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.36
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
IFK Varnamo xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.10 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 19L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.00 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.52 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 3-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 62%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Degerfors IF) and 57% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; IFK Varnamo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Degerfors IF's games and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Degerfors IF 0-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.35 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 41% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 29%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, IFK Varnamo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.