Degerfors IF 2-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Degerfors IF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Brommapojkarna — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 59% and IF Brommapojkarna 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.236 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.236. Data: 47 Degerfors IF games / 16 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Degerfors IF 1.37 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / def 1.236 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 30% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.87
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.05
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.59
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.68 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 12D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (26W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.83 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 26W 6D 14L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.39 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, IF Brommapojkarna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Degerfors IF) and 61% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 30%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Degerfors IF's games and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Degerfors IF's matches and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.10 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 56%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.