Degerfors IF 1-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates BK Hacken at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Degerfors IF's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, BK Hacken have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

BK Hacken's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Degerfors IF have won 1, BK Hacken 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Degerfors IF 1–6 BK Hacken — a BK Hacken win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Degerfors IF trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BK Hacken trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 59% and BK Hacken 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | BK Hacken 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.863 / defence 1.174 | BK Hacken attack 1.166 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.223. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 51 games and BK Hacken's last 51.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 45%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.18 | Draw 4.20 | BK Hacken 2.24. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and BK Hacken's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | BK Hacken 50% (last 10 away games).

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