Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.40 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus AIK Stockholm 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | AIK Stockholm 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.40 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.875 / defence 1.093 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.834 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.133. Data: 38 Degerfors IF games / 38 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 27%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | AIK Stockholm 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | AIK Stockholm 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.40 / AIK Stockholm 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.875 / def 1.093 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.834 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
AIK Stockholm xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.88) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.44
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
AIK Stockholm xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.03 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 14D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.82 PPG from 60 outings (32W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.43 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, AIK Stockholm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 47% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 57% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 47% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out AIK Stockholm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.40 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 27%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, AIK Stockholm 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.