AIK Stockholm 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC meet at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 November 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Friends Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. AIK Stockholm's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AIK Stockholm, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 36% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 36% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.892 / defence 0.836 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.777 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.368. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 AIK Stockholm games / 25 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.76. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 20% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.38 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.892 / def 0.836 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.777 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 November 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 45% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): AIK Stockholm 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.89x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.78x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
45%
2.21
34%
2.98
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.26
0.89
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.89 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 11L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.12 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 60%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.42 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AIK Stockholm won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 33%, Varbergs BoIS FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.38 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 36%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.28 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.