AIK Stockholm 1-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sirius travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.14 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. AIK Stockholm have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Friends Arena this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 3W 3D 1L from 7 Allsvenskan matches — 1.71 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sirius have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.71 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 1.71 PPG return is 0.57 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.14 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 43% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 43% versus Sirius 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 29% | Sirius 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG and Sirius 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.003 / defence 1.464 | Sirius attack 0.872 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 1.160. Data: 7 AIK Stockholm games / 7 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 26% | Sirius 50%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sirius 2.00. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: AIK Stockholm 100% | Sirius 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 26% | Sirius 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 0.94 / Sirius 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.003 / def 1.464 | Sirius attack 0.872 / def 0.951 | league avg home 0.984 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sirius (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Sirius.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 24% chance of winning, Sirius a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
24%
4.18
26%
3.80
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.42
1.48
Sirius xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
18.36
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.2 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.48 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sirius, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sirius by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AIK Stockholm heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.14 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Sirius's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — Sirius travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Early Season
Sirius
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Sirius have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 0.67 PPG; Sirius away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Sirius runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AIK Stockholm at 100%, Sirius at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AIK Stockholm) and 33% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Sirius in 67%; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of AIK Stockholm's games and 33% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 33% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Sirius tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Sirius 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG and Sirius 1.48 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sirius landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 1.46 against Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 24% | Draw 26% | Sirius 50%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 29%, Sirius 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Sirius's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.