AIK Stockholm 3-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as AIK Stockholm welcome Ostersunds FK to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2021, ended 2–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 38% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 32% | Ostersunds FK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.33 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.054 / defence 0.662 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.756 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.119. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.662 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 AIK Stockholm games / 56 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 77% | Draw 16% | Ostersunds FK 7%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Ostersunds FK 14.29. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 77% | Draw 16% | Ostersunds FK 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 39% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.33 / Ostersunds FK 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.054 / def 0.662 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.756 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Ostersunds FK xG
39%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
AIK Stockholm 3 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 77% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): AIK Stockholm 2W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 3-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.22
7%
14.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.89
0.56
Ostersunds FK xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.22
16%
Draw
14.33
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
10%
10.25
Win to Nil
44%
2.28
1%
146.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.1 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.56 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 24W 14D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 11W 14D 31L from 56 games, 0.84 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.96 PPG from 28 outings (17W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 8D 14L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.91 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 14D 18L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 14D 31L in their last 56 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Ostersunds FK away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.96 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.93 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AIK Stockholm have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AIK Stockholm 32% BTTS, Ostersunds FK 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (AIK Stockholm) and 46% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 36% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Ostersunds FK 3-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.33 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.56 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 / defence 0.66 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 77% | Draw 16% | Ostersunds FK 7%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 32%, Ostersunds FK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.