AIK Stockholm 0-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as AIK Stockholm welcome Ostersunds FK to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Ostersunds FK's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 43% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AIK Stockholm 43% | Ostersunds FK 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 0.91 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.815 / defence 1.222 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.699 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.306. Data: 14 AIK Stockholm games / 14 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 28% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 39%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Ostersunds FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 67% | Ostersunds FK 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 28% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG AIK Stockholm 0.91 / Ostersunds FK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.815 / def 1.222 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.699 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 August 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 28% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
28%
3.59
34%
2.98
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.11 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 3W 4D 7L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 0.93 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.79 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Ostersunds FK's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 0.83 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AIK Stockholm have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Ostersunds FK?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 67%, Ostersunds FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 33% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 50%; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AIK Stockholm's games and 50% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 0.91 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 28% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 39%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 43%, Ostersunds FK 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 0.93 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.