AIK Stockholm 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 34%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Friends Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | IF Elfsborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.035 / defence 0.865 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.129 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Data: 59 AIK Stockholm games / 59 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | IF Elfsborg 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.24 / IF Elfsborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.035 / def 0.865 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.129 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 34% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
34%
2.90
32%
3.15
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.23 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 32W 13D 14L from 59 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 16L across 59 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.85 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 21W 6D 2L from 29 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 13W 6D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.78 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 14L in their last 59 games (1.85 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 14D 16L in their last 59 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.38 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 38%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AIK Stockholm) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 34% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 34%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, IF Elfsborg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.85 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.