AIK Stockholm 3-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF meet at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Allsvenskan appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Hammarby FF are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 37% versus Hammarby FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 32% | Hammarby FF 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.720 / defence 1.056 | Hammarby FF attack 0.944 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.416. AIK Stockholm's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 AIK Stockholm games / 20 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 25% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 44%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 44% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 25% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.02 / Hammarby FF 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.720 / def 1.056 | Hammarby FF attack 0.944 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm 3 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 25% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.94x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
25%
3.98
31%
3.23
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.43
1.41
Hammarby FF xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.41 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 6D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 0.89 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.44 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 44%, Hammarby FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for AIK Stockholm and 89% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of AIK Stockholm's games and 67% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 89% of Hammarby FF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 3-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.41 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Hammarby FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 25% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 44%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 32%, Hammarby FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.