AIK Stockholm 0-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 71%, yet in-form Gais provide a compelling counter-argument — this AIK Stockholm vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as AIK Stockholm welcome Gais to Strawberry Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.90 conceded. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Strawberry Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Gais have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Gais's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Gais and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gais in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 56% versus Gais 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 53% | Gais 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.59 xG and Gais 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.266 / defence 1.060 | Gais attack 0.730 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.321. AIK Stockholm carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gais bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 AIK Stockholm games / 15 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 16% | Gais 13%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Gais 7.69. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gais (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 60% | Gais 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 16% | Gais 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 59% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.59 / Gais 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.266 / def 1.060 | Gais attack 0.730 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gais xG
59%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Gais kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 July 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Gais.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Gais part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Gais is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 71% chance of winning, Gais a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): AIK Stockholm 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Gais in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Gais (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.27) and Gais's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.18
13%
7.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.62
1.02
Gais xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.18
16%
Draw
7.89
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
7%
13.38
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
105.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.02 for Gais, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 11D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (25W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 11W 6D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.78 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Gais in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Gais have gone 25W 7D 13L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Gais away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.77 PPG; Gais away: 1.55 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gais in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Gais runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-0 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 50%, Gais 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 64% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gais in 36%; Gais in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 46% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 64% of Gais's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Gais tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gais in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.59 xG and Gais 1.02 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against Gais attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 71% | Draw 16% | Gais 13%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 53%, Gais 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Gais (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.