AIK Stockholm 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Djurgardens IF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (AIK Stockholm) versus 2.00 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 41% versus Djurgardens IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 35% | Djurgardens IF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.159 / defence 0.788 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.087 / defence 0.653. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.058. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.653 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 AIK Stockholm games / 51 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 27%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Djurgardens IF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Djurgardens IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.09 / Djurgardens IF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.159 / def 0.788 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.087 / def 0.653 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 37% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
37%
2.72
36%
2.78
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Djurgardens IF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.91 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 22W 14D 15L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 27W 11D 13L from 51 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.57 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 12W 5D 8L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 11D 13L in their last 51 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Djurgardens IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.96 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.64 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 32%, Djurgardens IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (AIK Stockholm) and 44% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 44% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.16 / defence 0.79 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.65, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 37% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 27%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 35%, Djurgardens IF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.57 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.