AIK Stockholm 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Djurgardens IF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AIK Stockholm) versus 1.40 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (AIK Stockholm 40% | Djurgardens IF 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 40% | Djurgardens IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.921 / defence 1.296 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.722 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.168. Data: 10 AIK Stockholm games / 10 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 75% | Djurgardens IF 20%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.09 / Djurgardens IF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.921 / def 1.296 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.722 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Djurgardens IF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 35% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.18
1.09
Djurgardens IF xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.09 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.20 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Djurgardens IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.25 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 0.75 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 75%, Djurgardens IF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 25% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.92 / defence 1.30 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 35% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 40%, Djurgardens IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.20 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.