Villarreal 3-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio de la Ceramica to face Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Ceramica this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Villarreal, 1.40 for Levante — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Villarreal 3W, Levante 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 5–1 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Villarreal — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Levante — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 67% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 63% | Levante 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.78 xG and Levante 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.125 / defence 1.248 | Levante attack 0.652 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.249. Data: 44 Villarreal games / 43 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Levante 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Villarreal dominate the H2H record, yet Levante are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 100% | Levante 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Levante 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Villarreal 1.78 / Levante 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.125 / def 1.248 | Levante attack 0.652 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Levante xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Levante kick off?
Villarreal vs Levante kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Villarreal 3 - 1 Levante.
Where is Villarreal vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Levante part of?
Villarreal vs Levante is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 55% chance of winning, Levante a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Villarreal and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Villarreal 3W | Draws 0 | Levante 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Levante in?
Villarreal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.12x the league average against Levante's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.65x) against Villarreal's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.08
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.79
1.02
Levante xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
28.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.02 for Levante, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 22W 8D 13L from 43 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 20L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 14W 1D 5L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.26 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Levante in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 22W 8D 13L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Levante away?
Villarreal's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.15 PPG; Levante away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 4, Levante have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Villarreal 3-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Levante?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 70%, Levante 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Villarreal and 45% for Levante. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Villarreal's games and 40% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Villarreal's matches and 45% of Levante's.
Do Villarreal and Levante tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Levante 3-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.78 xG and Levante 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Levante attack 0.65 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 55% | Draw 25% | Levante 21%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 63%, Levante 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.