Villarreal 5-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio de la Ceramica to face Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Ceramica this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Levante's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Villarreal's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Villarreal 2W, Levante 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Villarreal — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Levante — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 61% versus Levante 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 58% | Levante 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.02 xG and Levante 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.265 / defence 0.934 | Levante attack 0.717 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.136. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Villarreal games / 33 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Levante 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 70% | Levante 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 46% | xG Villarreal 2.02 / Levante 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.265 / def 0.934 | Levante attack 0.717 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Levante xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Levante kick off?
Villarreal vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Levante.
Where is Villarreal vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Levante part of?
Villarreal vs Levante is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 67% chance of winning, Levante a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Villarreal and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
Record (3 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 0 | Levante 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Levante in?
Villarreal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Levante (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.26x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.72x) against Villarreal's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.98
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.78
0.76
Levante xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
57.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.76 for Levante, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 20W 5D 8L from 33 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 16L across 33 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 13W 1D 2L from 16 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Levante in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 20W 5D 8L in their last 33 games (1.97 PPG), while Levante have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Levante away?
Villarreal's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.50 PPG; Levante away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Levante have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Villarreal 5-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Levante?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 56%, Levante 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Villarreal) and 38% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Levante in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Villarreal's recent matches and 38% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Villarreal's recent games and 38% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Levante tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Levante 5-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.02 xG and Levante 0.76 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Levante attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 67% | Draw 20% | Levante 13%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 58%, Levante 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.