Villarreal 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Villarreal at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio de la Cerámica to face Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Girona have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Villarreal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Girona in 88%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 29% versus Girona 88%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 35% | Girona 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.89 xG and Girona 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.186 / defence 0.957 | Girona attack 1.060 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.026. Girona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Villarreal games / 17 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 57% | Draw 22% | Girona 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Girona 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 60% | Girona 88% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 57% | Draw 22% | Girona 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Villarreal 1.89 / Girona 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.186 / def 0.957 | Girona attack 1.060 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Girona xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Girona kick off?
Villarreal vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Girona?
Villarreal 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Villarreal vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Girona part of?
Villarreal vs Girona is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 57% chance of winning, Girona a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Villarreal and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Girona in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Girona (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.19) and Girona's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Girona's attack (1.06x) against Villarreal's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.48
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.93
1.04
Girona xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
32.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.04 for Girona, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Girona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 6L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Girona heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Girona's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.53 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Girona in 88%.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Girona in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Girona have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Girona away?
Villarreal's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.29 PPG; Girona away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Girona in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Villarreal
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Girona 1-0 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Girona?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Villarreal, 100% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Villarreal and 71% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Villarreal's games and 100% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Villarreal's matches and 71% of Girona's.
Do Villarreal and Girona tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Girona in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.89 xG and Girona 1.04 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Girona attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 57% | Draw 22% | Girona 21%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 35%, Girona 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Girona's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.