Villarreal 5-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Alaves travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's home record at Estadio de la Cerámica: 4W 2D 2L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Cerámica. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Cerámica than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.20 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Villarreal trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Alaves trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 47% versus Alaves 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Villarreal 41% | Alaves 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.49 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.127 / defence 1.238 | Alaves attack 0.737 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.143. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Villarreal games / 17 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 46% | Draw 28% | Alaves 25%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 4.00. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 50% | Alaves 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 46% | Draw 28% | Alaves 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Villarreal 1.49 / Alaves 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.127 / def 1.238 | Alaves attack 0.737 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Alaves xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Alaves kick off?
Villarreal vs Alaves kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Villarreal 5 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Villarreal vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Alaves part of?
Villarreal vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 46% chance of winning, Alaves a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Villarreal and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Alaves in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.13x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.53
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.53
1.04
Alaves xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.04 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Villarreal have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 7D 5L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 4W 3D 10L from 17 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alaves have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.76 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Alaves in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Alaves away?
Villarreal's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.75 PPG; Alaves away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Alaves in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Alaves runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Alaves 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Alaves?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 50%, Alaves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Villarreal) and 38% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Villarreal's recent matches and 38% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Villarreal's recent games and 38% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Alaves tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alaves in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Alaves 5-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.49 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.13 / defence 1.24 against Alaves attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 46% | Draw 28% | Alaves 25%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 41%, Alaves 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.