Valladolid 1-0 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to face Valladolid in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's home record at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla: 2W 1D 2L from 5 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Real Sociedad (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Real Sociedad are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 40% versus Real Sociedad 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 50% | Real Sociedad 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.18 xG and Real Sociedad 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.814 / defence 1.099 | Real Sociedad attack 1.261 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.156. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Valladolid games / 48 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 28% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 47%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Real Sociedad 2.13. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 20% | Real Sociedad 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 28% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Valladolid 1.18 / Real Sociedad 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.814 / def 1.099 | Real Sociedad attack 1.261 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Real Sociedad xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Valladolid vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Real Sociedad?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Real Sociedad.
Where is Valladolid vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Real Sociedad part of?
Valladolid vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 28% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Valladolid and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Real Sociedad in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Real Sociedad (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.81) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.26x) against Valladolid's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
28%
3.57
25%
4.04
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.78
1.60
Real Sociedad xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
17.71
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.60 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 3W 2D 5L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad's form line: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Sociedad are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad in 60%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.40 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
1
Draws
1
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Sociedad?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Real Sociedad 2-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Real Sociedad?
Valladolid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 20%, Real Sociedad 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valladolid) and 60% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 40%; Valladolid have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Valladolid's recent matches and 60% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valladolid's recent games and 60% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Real Sociedad 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.18 xG and Real Sociedad 1.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Real Sociedad attack 1.26 / defence 1.02, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 28% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 47%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 50%, Real Sociedad 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.