Valladolid 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Valladolid take on Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valladolid host Osasuna at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valladolid — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valladolid at 1.20 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valladolid 25% | Osasuna 45%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valladolid 40% | Osasuna 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.85 xG and Osasuna 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.741 / defence 1.011 | Osasuna attack 0.828 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 0.970. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Valladolid games / 58 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 34% | Draw 35% | Osasuna 32%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Osasuna 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 20% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 34% | Draw 35% | Osasuna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Valladolid 0.85 / Osasuna 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.741 / def 1.011 | Osasuna attack 0.828 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.290 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Osasuna xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Osasuna kick off?
Valladolid vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Valladolid 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Valladolid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Osasuna part of?
Valladolid vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 34% chance of winning, Osasuna a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Valladolid and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Osasuna in?
Valladolid (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valladolid's attack at 0.74x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
35%
2.89
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.66
0.81
Osasuna xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 15.5 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.81 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid's recent record stands at 7W 2D 11L from 20 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 7L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valladolid on 1.15 PPG, Osasuna on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valladolid have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osasuna's away record stands at 2W 5D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 7W 2D 11L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Osasuna away?
Valladolid's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.60 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valladolid's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Valladolid 2-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valladolid 20% BTTS, Osasuna 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Valladolid and 10% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 50% of games; Osasuna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Valladolid's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Valladolid's recent games and 10% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valladolid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 21, as Valladolid and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.85 xG and Osasuna 0.81 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valladolid fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 34% | Draw 35% | Osasuna 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 40%, Osasuna 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.15 PPG, Osasuna 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.