Valladolid 1-3 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Valladolid welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valladolid have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Valladolid) versus 0.80 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valladolid, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Athletic Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valladolid 32% | Athletic Club 36%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 44% | Athletic Club 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.93 xG and Athletic Club 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.763 / defence 0.984 | Athletic Club attack 0.911 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 0.961. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Valladolid games / 63 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 35% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 32%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Athletic Club 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Athletic Club's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valladolid are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valladolid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 30% | Athletic Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 35% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Valladolid 0.93 / Athletic Club 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.763 / def 0.984 | Athletic Club attack 0.911 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.350 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Athletic Club xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Athletic Club kick off?
Valladolid vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Valladolid 1 - 3 Athletic Club.
Where is Valladolid vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Athletic Club part of?
Valladolid vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 35% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Valladolid and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Athletic Club in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.76) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.03
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.79
0.86
Athletic Club xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.86 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 4D 13L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 9W 6D 10L from 25 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valladolid on 1.12 PPG, Athletic Club on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.32 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Athletic Club away?
Valladolid's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.67 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Athletic Club won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Athletic Club 7-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 25%, Athletic Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Valladolid) and 58% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 50% of games; Athletic Club in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Valladolid's recent matches and 50% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valladolid's recent games and 58% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Valladolid 1-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.93 xG and Athletic Club 0.86 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Athletic Club attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 35% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 32%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 44%, Athletic Club 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.12 PPG, Athletic Club 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.