Valencia 1-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Valencia's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Valencia 1W, Mallorca 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 62% versus Mallorca 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 52% | Mallorca 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.58 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.172 / defence 0.977 | Mallorca attack 0.833 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.141. Data: 48 Valencia games / 48 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 22%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Mallorca 4.55. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Valencia 1.58 / Mallorca 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.172 / def 0.977 | Mallorca attack 0.833 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Valencia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Mallorca kick off?
Valencia vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Valencia 1 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Valencia vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Mallorca part of?
Valencia vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 53% chance of winning, Mallorca a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valencia and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in?
Valencia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.83x) against Valencia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.96
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.51
0.93
Mallorca xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
5%
21.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Valencia and 0.93 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 15W 18D 15L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 12W 12D 24L from 48 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Valencia against 1.00 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 18D 15L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 12W 12D 24L in their last 48 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Mallorca away?
Valencia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.50 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
5
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 58%, Mallorca 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Valencia) and 46% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Valencia's recent matches and 46% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Valencia's recent games and 46% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.58 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 53% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 22%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 52%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.31 PPG, Mallorca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.