Valencia 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 47%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valencia vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 19 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Valencia 2W, Mallorca 3W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 56% versus Mallorca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Mallorca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.885 / defence 0.918 | Mallorca attack 0.878 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.093. Data: 54 Valencia games / 54 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 47% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Mallorca 4.00. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 40% | Mallorca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 47% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Valencia 1.31 / Mallorca 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.885 / def 0.918 | Mallorca attack 0.878 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Valencia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mallorca xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Mallorca kick off?
Valencia vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Valencia 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Valencia vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Mallorca part of?
Valencia vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 47% chance of winning, Mallorca a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
Record (8 meetings): Valencia 2W | Draws 3 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.88x) against Valencia's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.53
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Mallorca xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Valencia and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Valencia and 0.88 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 19D 21L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 17W 14D 23L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Valencia against 1.20 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 7W 4D 16L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Mallorca away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
5
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 48%, Mallorca 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 44% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Valencia's recent matches and 44% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Mallorca attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 47% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 25%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Mallorca 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.13 PPG, Mallorca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.