Valencia vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Levante travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estadio de Mestalla — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Levante — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Valencia) versus 1.00 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Valencia have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Levante have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Valencia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Valencia and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Levante trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 50% versus Levante 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Levante 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.17 xG and Levante 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.686 / defence 1.098 | Levante attack 0.720 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Valencia's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Valencia games / 46 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 38% | Draw 33% | Levante 29%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Levante 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 50% | Levante 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 38% | Draw 33% | Levante 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Valencia 1.17 / Levante 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.686 / def 1.098 | Levante attack 0.720 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Valencia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Levante xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Levante kick off?
Valencia vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Estadio de Mestalla.
Where is Valencia vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Levante part of?
Valencia vs Levante is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 38% chance of winning, Levante a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Valencia and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Valencia 3W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Valencia and Levante in?
Valencia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.69x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.08
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.16
0.99
Levante xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Valencia and 0.99 for Levante, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 20L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 21L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.17 PPG, Levante on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Levante in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Levante away?
Valencia's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.35 PPG; Levante away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Levante?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 52%, Levante 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Valencia) and 44% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Valencia have failed to score in 30% of games; Levante in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Valencia's recent matches and 44% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Levante tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Levante in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.