Real Madrid 3-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Madrid face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Real Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Real Madrid are significantly better at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Real Madrid have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 5–0 with Real Madrid winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Real Madrid and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Alaves trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 46% versus Alaves 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 52% | Alaves 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.40 xG and Alaves 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.410 / defence 0.764 | Alaves attack 1.065 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.070. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Real Madrid's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Real Madrid games / 44 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 70% | Draw 20% | Alaves 10%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Alaves 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Real Madrid 20% | Alaves 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 70% | Draw 20% | Alaves 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Real Madrid 2.40 / Alaves 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.410 / def 0.764 | Alaves attack 1.065 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alaves xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
Real Madrid vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid 3 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Real Madrid vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Alaves part of?
Real Madrid vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 70% chance of winning, Alaves a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Real Madrid and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Real Madrid 4W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Real Madrid's attack at 1.41x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
70%
1.43
20%
5.01
10%
9.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.27
0.87
Alaves xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
9.75
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
9%
11.07
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
107.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.87 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Madrid come into this having played 44 games, going 33W 10D 1L for 2.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Real Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Madrid's home form reads 19W 3D 0L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Madrid are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 33W 10D 1L in their last 44 games (2.48 PPG), while Alaves have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Alaves away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.73 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Alaves in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Madrid and Alaves runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Real Madrid
0
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 8, Alaves have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 36%, Alaves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Real Madrid) and 41% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Alaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 46% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Real Madrid's recent games and 41% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Alaves tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Alaves in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 3-2 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.40 xG and Alaves 0.87 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.41 / defence 0.76 against Alaves attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 70% | Draw 20% | Alaves 10%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 52%, Alaves 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.