Rayo Vallecano vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Levante to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Rayo Vallecano have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas: 5W 5D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Levante — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.60 PPG versus Levante's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Levante and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 49% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 39% | Levante 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.59 xG and Levante 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.933 / defence 0.921 | Levante attack 0.771 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Data: 41 Rayo Vallecano games / 41 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 56% | Draw 25% | Levante 19%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Levante 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 56% | Draw 25% | Levante 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.59 / Levante 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.933 / def 0.921 | Levante attack 0.771 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Levante xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 56% chance of winning, Levante a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 1W | Draws 2 | Levante 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.93x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.99
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
Levante xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.81 for Levante, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 15D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levante sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (12W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.24 PPG, Levante on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 7W 11D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Levante away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.60 PPG; Levante away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Rayo Vallecano won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 55%, Levante 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rayo Vallecano and 45% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Levante in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 40% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 45% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Levante tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.