Rayo Vallecano 5-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Vallecas this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cadiz (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rayo Vallecano. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rayo Vallecano lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Cadiz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 48% versus Cadiz 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 42% | Cadiz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG and Cadiz 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.822 / defence 1.017 | Cadiz attack 0.740 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.155. Data: 48 Rayo Vallecano games / 48 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 41% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 28%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Cadiz 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 70% | Cadiz 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 41% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.13 / Cadiz 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.822 / def 1.017 | Cadiz attack 0.740 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cadiz xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Rayo Vallecano 5 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 41% chance of winning, Cadiz a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 1W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.82) and Cadiz's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.74x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
41%
2.41
31%
3.28
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.00
0.87
Cadiz xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.87 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 12D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.96 PPG from 48 outings (9W 19D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 0.96 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.81 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 9W 19D 20L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Cadiz away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.57 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rayo Vallecano won 5-1 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 48%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rayo Vallecano) and 39% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cadiz in 35%; Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 30% of games; Cadiz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 39% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rayo Vallecano run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Cadiz 5-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG and Cadiz 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 41% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 28%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 42%, Cadiz 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.12 PPG, Cadiz 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.