Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Almeria travel to Estadio de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayo Vallecano stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Estadio de Vallecas: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Almeria's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG, Almeria 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Almeria in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 49% versus Almeria 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 48% | Almeria 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.34 xG and Almeria 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.820 / defence 0.949 | Almeria attack 0.999 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.098. Data: 71 Rayo Vallecano games / 71 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 28% | Almeria 29%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Almeria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Almeria 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 28% | Almeria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.34 / Almeria 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.820 / def 0.949 | Almeria attack 0.999 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Almeria xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 43% chance of winning, Almeria a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Almeria?
Record (3 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.82) and Almeria's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.58
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
Almeria xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.04 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 20W 23D 28L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 12W 19D 40L from 71 games, 0.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.17 PPG, Almeria on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (12W 13D 10L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 2W 8D 25L from 35 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 65%.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 20W 23D 28L in their last 71 games (1.17 PPG), while Almeria have gone 12W 19D 40L in their last 71 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Almeria away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.40 PPG; Almeria away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
2
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Almeria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayo Vallecano at 63%, Almeria at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Rayo Vallecano) and 63% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 29% of games; Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 69% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Rayo Vallecano's matches and 63% of Almeria's.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Almeria tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almeria in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Rayo Vallecano 0-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.34 xG and Almeria 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Almeria attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 28% | Almeria 29%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Almeria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 48%, Almeria 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almeria's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.17 PPG, Almeria 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.