Osasuna 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 1.20 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Mallorca and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Mallorca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Mallorca 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 35% | Mallorca 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.26 xG and Mallorca 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.997 / defence 1.005 | Mallorca attack 0.936 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.067. Data: 54 Osasuna games / 54 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Mallorca 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Osasuna 1.26 / Mallorca 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.997 / def 1.005 | Mallorca attack 0.936 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Mallorca xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Mallorca a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.00x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.45
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.26
1.00
Mallorca xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 14D 21L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 16W 13D 25L from 54 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.31 PPG, Mallorca on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.93 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.37 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mallorca in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 48%, Mallorca 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 44% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 26% of games; Mallorca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.26 xG and Mallorca 1.00 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Mallorca attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 29%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 35%, Mallorca 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.31 PPG, Mallorca 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.