Osasuna 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 36). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Osasuna — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mallorca stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.80 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Osasuna have won 2, Mallorca 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Osasuna 2–3 Mallorca — a Mallorca win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 40% | Mallorca 29%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Osasuna surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Mallorca have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.08 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.795 / defence 1.208 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.098. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 73 games and Mallorca's last 73.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.72 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 30% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 36 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Osasuna 1.08 / Mallorca 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.795 / def 1.208 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 36) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 37% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.80x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 73 games and Mallorca's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.33
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Mallorca xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.01 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 26W 15D 32L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 21W 22D 30L from 73 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.27 PPG, Mallorca on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 4D 15L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 5W 10D 21L from their last 36 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 26W 15D 32L in their last 73 games (1.27 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 21W 22D 30L in their last 73 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.53 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 39%, Mallorca 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 36% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Mallorca in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Osasuna's recent matches and 42% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 36% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Osasuna's recent matches and 61% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, as Osasuna and Mallorca drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.08 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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