Osasuna 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Osasuna take on Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 La Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.72 xG and Celta Vigo 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.837 / defence 1.027 | Celta Vigo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.749 / away 0.905. Data: 1 Osasuna games / 1 Celta Vigo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 26% | Draw 44% | Celta Vigo 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.85 | Draw 2.27 | Celta Vigo 3.33. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 26% | Draw 44% | Celta Vigo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 32% | xG Osasuna 0.72 / Celta Vigo 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.837 / def 1.027 | Celta Vigo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.749 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Celta Vigo xG
32%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 26% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 30% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.86
44%
2.27
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.51
0.79
Celta Vigo xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.27
44%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.1 | 17.4 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.79 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Celta Vigo heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Celta Vigo in 100%.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Osasuna or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Osasuna's recent matches and 100% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Osasuna's recent games and 100% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 2, as Osasuna and Celta Vigo drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.72 xG and Celta Vigo 0.79 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Celta Vigo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 26% | Draw 44% | Celta Vigo 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 0%, Celta Vigo 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Celta Vigo managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.