Osasuna vs Alaves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Alaves — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Alaves trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Alaves 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Alaves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.21 xG and Alaves 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.784 / defence 0.846 | Alaves attack 1.022 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Osasuna games / 41 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 41% | Draw 29% | Alaves 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Alaves 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Osasuna dominate the H2H record, yet Alaves are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma. Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 70% | Alaves 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 41% | Draw 29% | Alaves 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 1.21 / Alaves 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.784 / def 0.846 | Alaves attack 1.022 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Alaves xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Wednesday 21 April 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 41% chance of winning, Alaves a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Record (8 meetings): Osasuna 5W | Draws 3 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.78) and Alaves's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.46
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Alaves xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.98 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 10D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (13W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.20 PPG, Alaves on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 61%.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Alaves have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.65 PPG; Alaves away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 70%, Alaves 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Osasuna) and 40% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Osasuna's games and 55% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Osasuna's recent games and 40% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alaves in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.