Osasuna 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Alaves — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.00 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Alaves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 41% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.43 xG and Alaves 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.087 / defence 1.122 | Alaves attack 0.768 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.075. Data: 54 Osasuna games / 54 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 28% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 4.17. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 28% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Osasuna 1.43 / Alaves 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.087 / def 1.122 | Alaves attack 0.768 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Alaves xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Osasuna 3 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 48% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 4W | Draws 2 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.09) and Alaves's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.59
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Alaves xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.93 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 19D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.11 PPG from 54 outings (15W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.24 PPG, Alaves on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 14W 7D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.96 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 19D 19L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Alaves have gone 15W 15D 24L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.88 PPG; Alaves away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 69%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osasuna) and 46% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Alaves in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Osasuna's games and 54% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osasuna's recent games and 46% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Alaves in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osasuna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Alaves 3-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.43 xG and Alaves 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Alaves attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 48% | Draw 28% | Alaves 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 41%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.24 PPG, Alaves 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.