Osasuna 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 35% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alaves — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Alaves away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.30 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Osasuna hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Alaves and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Osasuna 2–0 Alaves — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data gives Osasuna an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 50% versus Alaves 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 38% | Alaves 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.17 xG and Alaves 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.900 / defence 1.081 | Alaves attack 0.882 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.134. Data: built from Osasuna's last 64 games and Alaves's last 26.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 35% | Alaves 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.86 | Draw 2.90 | Alaves 3.28. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 35% | Alaves 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Osasuna 1.17 / Alaves 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.900 / def 1.081 | Alaves attack 0.882 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Alaves xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, Alaves a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.90) and Alaves's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 64 games and Alaves's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
35%
2.86
35%
2.90
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.25
1.08
Alaves xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.08 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 6D 11L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.27 PPG, Alaves on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 5W 3D 5L across their last 13 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 13 away games (2W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.96 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Alaves have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.38 PPG; Alaves away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alaves in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won Osasuna 3-0 Alaves.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 38%, Alaves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Osasuna and 38% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Alaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Osasuna's recent matches and 46% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Osasuna's recent games and 38% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Osasuna's recent matches and 62% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.17 xG and Alaves 1.08 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 35% | Alaves 30%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Alaves 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Alaves 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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