Mallorca 1-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mallorca take on Real Sociedad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Real Sociedad in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Real Sociedad's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mallorca, 1.20 for Real Sociedad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Real Sociedad have the stronger record — 4 wins to Mallorca's 0, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad — a Real Sociedad win.
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 40% versus Real Sociedad 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 31% | Real Sociedad 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.81 xG and Real Sociedad 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.876 / defence 0.880 | Real Sociedad attack 0.973 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.126. Real Sociedad bring a tight defence (rating 0.686, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mallorca's projected output down. Data: built from Mallorca's last 62 games and Real Sociedad's last 62.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 27% | Draw 38% | Real Sociedad 35%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.73 | Draw 2.63 | Real Sociedad 2.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mallorca 60% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 27% | Draw 38% | Real Sociedad 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Mallorca 0.81 / Real Sociedad 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.876 / def 0.880 | Real Sociedad attack 0.973 / def 0.686 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Real Sociedad xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Real Sociedad FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Mallorca 1 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad part of?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 27% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mallorca and Real Sociedad will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Mallorca vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.88) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (0.97x) against Mallorca's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 62 games and Real Sociedad's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.73
38%
2.63
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.78
0.96
Real Sociedad xG
3.73
27%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Real Sociedad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.96 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 19D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.74 PPG from 62 outings (30W 18D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 13W 12D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.34 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Real Sociedad Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 18W 19D 25L in their last 62 games (1.18 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 30W 18D 14L in their last 62 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Sociedad away?
Mallorca's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.65 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Real Sociedad have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Real Sociedad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Sociedad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 42%, Real Sociedad 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Mallorca and 42% for Real Sociedad.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 42%; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Real Sociedad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Real Sociedad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Real Sociedad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mallorca's recent matches and 45% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Real Sociedad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Mallorca's recent games and 42% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Sociedad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Mallorca's recent matches and 74% of Real Sociedad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Mallorca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.81 xG and Real Sociedad 0.96 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Real Sociedad attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 27% | Draw 38% | Real Sociedad 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 31%, Real Sociedad 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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