Mallorca 1-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Levante at Iberostar Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 2D 3L from 7 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.14 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 1L at Iberostar Estadi — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Iberostar Estadi.
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have recorded 0W 4D 3L from 7 outings — 0.57 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Mallorca have the edge — a 0.57 PPG advantage (1.14 vs 0.57) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Levante trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 43% versus Levante 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 29% | Levante 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.25 xG and Levante 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.913 / defence 1.128 | Levante attack 0.674 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.042. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Mallorca games / 7 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 33% | Levante 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Levante 4.55. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 50% | Levante 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Iberostar Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 33% | Levante 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Mallorca 1.25 / Levante 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.913 / def 1.128 | Levante attack 0.674 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Levante xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Levante kick off?
Mallorca vs Levante kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Iberostar Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Levante?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Levante.
Where is Mallorca vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Iberostar Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Levante part of?
Mallorca vs Levante is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 45% chance of winning, Levante a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Levante in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
45%
2.21
33%
3.02
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.04
0.79
Levante xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.79 for Levante, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (0W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mallorca's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Levante in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Levante away?
Mallorca's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.25 PPG; Levante away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Levante in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Levante have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Levante 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Levante?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 50%, Levante 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mallorca and 25% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Levante in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mallorca's recent matches and 50% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mallorca's recent games and 25% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Levante tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Levante 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Levante 1-0 at Iberostar Estadi, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.25 xG and Levante 0.79 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Levante attack 0.67 / defence 1.33, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 45% | Draw 33% | Levante 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 29%, Levante 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levante's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.