Mallorca 2-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Almeria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Almeria at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mallorca — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Mallorca have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Almeria have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Almeria 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Almeria and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Mallorca 0–0 Almeria — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 40% versus Almeria 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 28% | Almeria 62%). Note also that Almeria surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Mallorca recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.13 xG and Almeria 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.701 / defence 0.802 | Almeria attack 1.061 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Mallorca's last 74 games and Almeria's last 74.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.49 | Draw 3.33 | Almeria 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Mallorca 1.13 / Almeria 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.701 / def 0.802 | Almeria attack 1.061 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Almeria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Almeria kick off?
Mallorca vs Almeria kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Mallorca 2 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Mallorca vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Almeria part of?
Mallorca vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Almeria a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Mallorca vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 74 games and Almeria's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Almeria xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.93 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 21W 23D 30L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 13W 19D 42L from 74 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.16 PPG, Almeria on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 37 home games (16W 12D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almeria have gone 3W 8D 26L from their last 37 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.14 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 64%.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Almeria in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 21W 23D 30L in their last 74 games (1.16 PPG), while Almeria have gone 13W 19D 42L in their last 74 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Almeria away?
Mallorca's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.62 PPG; Almeria away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almeria in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2023, when Almeria won Almeria 3-0 Mallorca.
Mallorca's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Mallorca 2-2 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 38%, Almeria 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Mallorca) and 62% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games; Almeria in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Almeria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mallorca's recent matches and 68% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Mallorca's recent games and 62% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Mallorca's recent matches and 78% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Almeria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Almeria finished level at 2-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.13 xG and Almeria 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almeria outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.80 against Almeria attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 28%, Almeria 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Almeria 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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