Levante 0-2 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Valencia at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 1W 4D 5L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.90 PPG, Valencia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levante register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Valencia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levante, 2 for Valencia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valencia in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 54% versus Valencia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Valencia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.33 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.751 / defence 1.285 | Valencia attack 0.895 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.126. Levante's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Levante games / 61 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 36% | Draw 29% | Valencia 34%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Valencia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levante 70% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 36% | Draw 29% | Valencia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Levante 1.33 / Valencia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.751 / def 1.285 | Valencia attack 0.895 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Levante (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Valencia xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Valencia kick off?
Levante vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Valencia?
Levante 0 - 2 Valencia.
Where is Levante vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Valencia part of?
Levante vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 36% chance of winning, Valencia a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levante and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
Record (3 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Levante and Valencia in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.75) and Valencia's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.41
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Levante xG
Total xG
2.62
1.29
Valencia xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Levante and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Levante and 1.29 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 6D 12L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.82 PPG, Valencia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Levante's home form reads 1W 4D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Valencia in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Valencia have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Valencia away?
Levante's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.70 PPG; Valencia away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Levante's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Levante at 70%, Valencia at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Levante and 70% for Valencia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 30% of games; Valencia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Levante's games and 60% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Levante's matches and 70% of Valencia's.
Do Levante and Valencia tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Valencia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.33 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Valencia attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 36% | Draw 29% | Valencia 34%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 50%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.82 PPG, Valencia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.