Levante 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Athletic Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Athletic Club make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 19 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 0W 4D 2L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Athletic Club's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club away from home this season: 1W 5D 0L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Athletic Club are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Athletic Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 50% | Athletic Club 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.76 xG and Athletic Club 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.796 / defence 1.472 | Athletic Club attack 0.757 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.112. Levante's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Levante games / 12 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 46%. Fair-value odds: Levante 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Athletic Club 2.17. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 50% | Athletic Club 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Levante 0.76 / Athletic Club 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.796 / def 1.472 | Athletic Club attack 0.757 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Athletic Club xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Athletic Club kick off?
Levante vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Levante 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Levante vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Athletic Club part of?
Levante vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 21% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Levante and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Athletic Club in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.80x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.76x) against Levante's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
21%
4.73
33%
3.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Levante xG
Total xG
2.00
1.24
Athletic Club xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.7 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Levante and 1.24 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Levante have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 0W 5D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 4W 6D 2L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 1W 5D 0L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 0.92 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 5D 7L in their last 12 games (0.42 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.67 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Levante or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Athletic Club have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Athletic Club 4-2 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 50%, Athletic Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Levante and 0% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 50%; Levante have failed to score in 50% of games; Athletic Club in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levante's recent matches and 50% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 0% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levante's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 14, as Levante and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.76 xG and Athletic Club 1.24 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.47 against Athletic Club attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 46%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 50%, Athletic Club 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.