Levante 0-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Athletic Club make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 0W 1D 4L this season (5 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season.
Athletic Club's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Levante, 0.80 for Athletic Club — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levante lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Athletic Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 62% versus Athletic Club 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 62% | Athletic Club 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.23 xG and Athletic Club 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.813 / defence 1.549 | Athletic Club attack 0.824 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.118. Data: 13 Levante games / 51 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 32% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 42%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Athletic Club 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 80% | Athletic Club 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 32% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Levante 1.23 / Athletic Club 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.813 / def 1.549 | Athletic Club attack 0.824 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Athletic Club xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Athletic Club kick off?
Levante vs Athletic Club kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Levante 0 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Levante vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Athletic Club part of?
Levante vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 32% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levante and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
Record (2 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Levante and Athletic Club in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.81x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.82x) against Levante's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
32%
3.09
26%
3.86
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Levante xG
Total xG
2.65
1.43
Athletic Club xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Levante and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Levante and 1.43 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Levante have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 2W 3D 8L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 0.69 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Athletic Club's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 0.92 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Athletic Club away?
Levante's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.20 PPG; Athletic Club away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Athletic Club have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Athletic Club 4-2 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 80%, Athletic Club 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Levante and 40% for Athletic Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Levante's recent matches and 20% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Levante's matches and 40% of Athletic Club's.
Do Levante and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.23 xG and Athletic Club 1.43 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.81 / defence 1.55 against Athletic Club attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 32% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 42%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 62%, Athletic Club 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Athletic Club's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.