Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Las Palmas have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Las Palmas have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio de Gran Canaria — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Las Palmas are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Osasuna and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Las Palmas trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 50% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 40% | Osasuna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.19 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.885 / defence 1.171 | Osasuna attack 0.765 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.148. Data: 58 Las Palmas games / 58 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 40% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 32%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 70% | Osasuna 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 40% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Las Palmas 1.19 / Osasuna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.885 / def 1.171 | Osasuna attack 0.765 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Osasuna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Osasuna kick off?
Las Palmas vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Las Palmas vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Osasuna part of?
Las Palmas vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 40% chance of winning, Osasuna a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Las Palmas and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Osasuna in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.89x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Osasuna xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.03 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 16W 14D 28L from 58 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 23L across 58 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Las Palmas on 1.07 PPG, Osasuna on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.19 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 18W 17D 23L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Osasuna away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.25 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Las Palmas and Osasuna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
3
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Osasuna tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 21, as Las Palmas and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.19 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Osasuna attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 40% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 32%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.07 PPG, Osasuna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.