Las Palmas 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mallorca haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Mallorca 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mallorca attack 0.898 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.073. Data: 0 Las Palmas games / 38 Mallorca games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 3.45. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Las Palmas 1.44 / Mallorca 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Mallorca attack 0.898 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mallorca xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Mallorca kick off?
Las Palmas vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Las Palmas vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Mallorca part of?
Las Palmas vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 45% chance of winning, Mallorca a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Las Palmas and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Las Palmas and Mallorca in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.90x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.81
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Mallorca xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.11 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Pre-Season
Mallorca
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mallorca go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Las Palmas and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Mallorca 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Mallorca attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 45% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.