Las Palmas 2-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Las Palmas and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Las Palmas have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Las Palmas's home record at Estadio de Gran Canaria: 1W 2D 0L from 3 La Liga appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.71 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.71 PPG for Las Palmas against 0.90 for Celta Vigo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 14% versus Celta Vigo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 0% | Celta Vigo 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.641 / defence 0.817 | Celta Vigo attack 1.154 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.220. Las Palmas's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Las Palmas games / 45 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 31% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 38%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Celta Vigo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 33% | Celta Vigo 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 31% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Las Palmas 1.01 / Celta Vigo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.641 / def 0.817 | Celta Vigo attack 1.154 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Celta Vigo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Las Palmas 2 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo part of?
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 31% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Las Palmas and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.64) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.15x) against Las Palmas's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
31%
3.23
31%
3.20
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
Celta Vigo xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.15 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Las Palmas come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Las Palmas, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Las Palmas against 0.71 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Las Palmas's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Las Palmas are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.71 PPG overall record — Celta Vigo travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Celta Vigo away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.67 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-1 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
1
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Las Palmas, 100% for Celta Vigo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Las Palmas and 67% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Las Palmas have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Las Palmas's games and 100% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Las Palmas's recent games and 67% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Celta Vigo 2-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Las Palmas beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.64 / defence 0.82 against Celta Vigo attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 31% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 38%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 14% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 0%, Celta Vigo 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.71 PPG, Celta Vigo 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.