Girona 0-0 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Real Sociedad — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Girona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Real Sociedad in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Girona, 1 for Real Sociedad and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 68% versus Real Sociedad 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Real Sociedad 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.75 xG and Real Sociedad 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.665 / defence 1.076 | Real Sociedad attack 1.047 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.168. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.665 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Real Sociedad's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Girona games / 60 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 28%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Real Sociedad 3.57. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Real Sociedad 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Girona 1.75 / Real Sociedad 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.665 / def 1.076 | Real Sociedad attack 1.047 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Girona (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Real Sociedad xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Girona vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Girona 0 - 0 Real Sociedad.
Where is Girona vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Sociedad part of?
Girona vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 47% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Girona and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 2 | Real Sociedad 1W.
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in?
Girona (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Real Sociedad (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.67x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.90
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Girona xG
Total xG
3.07
1.32
Real Sociedad xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Girona and 1.32 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 14D 16L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (30W 17D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.73 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Girona's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.38 scored and 0.93 conceded. Girona's scoring rate against Real Sociedad's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Sociedad away?
Girona's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.03 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Girona or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Real Sociedad runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
4
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Girona 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 67%, Real Sociedad 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 43% (Real Sociedad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 40%; Real Sociedad in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Girona's games and 47% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Girona's matches and 43% of Real Sociedad's.
Do Girona and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Girona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona and Real Sociedad finished level at 0-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.75 xG and Real Sociedad 1.32 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Girona fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Real Sociedad landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.67 / defence 1.08 against Real Sociedad attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 47% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 28%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Real Sociedad 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.73 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.