Girona 3-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Girona, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 67% versus Rayo Vallecano 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Rayo Vallecano 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.504 / defence 0.999 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.829 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.140. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Girona games / 63 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 16%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Rayo Vallecano 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Girona (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Girona 60% | Rayo Vallecano 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Girona 1.84 / Rayo Vallecano 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.504 / def 0.999 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.829 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Girona (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rayo Vallecano xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Girona 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 56% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Girona and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 2 | Rayo Vallecano 0W.
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in?
Girona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.50x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.64
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Girona xG
Total xG
2.79
0.94
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
38.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Girona and 0.94 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 30W 15D 18L from 63 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 25L across 63 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayo Vallecano heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 19W 5D 7L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.06 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 30W 15D 18L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 18W 20D 25L in their last 63 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Girona's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.00 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Rayo Vallecano runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
4
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 64%, Rayo Vallecano 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Girona) and 45% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 36%; Rayo Vallecano in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Girona's recent matches and 42% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Girona's recent games and 45% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Rayo Vallecano 3-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.94 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.50 / defence 1.00 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 56% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 16%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Rayo Vallecano 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.